Germania, se anni di Grosse Koalition aprono strade nuove alla sinistra

I risultati delle elezioni federali in Germania sono noti. Solo qualche commento. Arretra pesantemente la Cdu (scendendo dal 41,5% al 33%): ma Angela Merkel è confermata die Kanzlerin, chiamata a formare il governo per la quarta volta, siccome la Cdu rimane primo partito. Si parla di una coalizione Giamaica: Cdu, Liberali, Verdi. Vedremo. Netta la flessione per l’Spd. Il più brutto risultato dal 1949, anno della nascita della Repubblica Federale Tedesca (passando dal 25,7% al 20,5%).

Martin Schulz, politico di qualità, persona di valore, ha lasciato la presidenza del Parlamento europeo, a favore di Antonio Tajani, in quota al Ppe, ottenendo dal suo partito un’investitura unanime, acquisendo, in tal modo, una posizione molto forte, ritrovandosi poi, in campagna elettorale, in una contraddizione insormontabile: criticare la Merkel mentre il partito di cui egli è a capo governa con lei. Leader del partito e, al contempo, candidato: anche in questo caso s’incrina un nesso che solo la sovranità popolare può dirimere. Ora, per l’Spd, l’opposizione è un’opzione obbligata, anche per non cedere lo scettro di principale partito d’opposizione all’estrema destra. Deve fermare la tendenza a farsi fagocitare nella Große Koalition. Aprire una riflessione vera. Cercare di ritessere il filo delle alleanze nella società.

I due partiti che hanno portato la responsabilità di governo vengono penalizzati complessivamente con un 13% in meno. Si è registrato un indubbio successo per Alternativa per la Germania (AfD; Alternative für Deutschland), la formazione xenofoba e euroscettica, che diventa il terzo partito. Per la prima volta, nella storia della Repubblica Federale, entra in Parlamento una forza che si colloca a destra della Cdu. La stessa Angela Merkel ha esplicitamente ammesso che la Cdu ha perso voti a favore di AfD. La quale è un oggetto non meglio identificato nel panorama politico tedesco: annovera teste rasate, ma anche un pezzo rilevante di inquietudini provenienti dai Länder orientali e da un ceto medio che esprime malessere e protesta per le insidie della globalizzazione in un Paese, come la Germania, che ne soffre meno di altri, ma che non ne è del tutto al riparo.

L’economia sociale di mercato richiede uno Stato sociale capace di affrontare nuove sfide. In evidenza le tipiche faglie del movimento tellurico tuttora in atto: questione sociale; visione sovranazionale di profilo europeo; società inclusiva. E’ su questi aspetti che la politica è chiamata a rispondere, a segnare le differenze tra la sinistra e la destra. Più protezione; Europa democratica, non eurocratica; tema della multiculturalità, da governare, evitando che diventi argomento pretestuoso della propaganda anti-immigrazione. Sapendo che la democrazia non è un’icona da incorniciare in una teca: deve reggere agli urti che possono metterla in discussione.

Bisognerà anche verificare la “tenuta” di AfD. Lo showdown di Frauke Petry all’indomani del voto rivela una lotta di potere e una divisione interna che non sappiamo dove porteranno. Ma prima di giudicare altri sistemi politici non dimentichiamo mai di guardare al nostro. L’area sovranista euroscettica che agita il tema immigrazione piuttosto che proporsi di governarlo è attualmente formata dalla Lega più Fratelli d’Italia e, in termini percentuali, sfiora il 20%. Dal voto tedesco sono emerse altre tre forze politiche che non vanno affatto sottovalutate, tutte e tre intorno al 10%. Alcune leggermente sotto quella misura come i Verdi (8,9%) e la Sinistra (9,2%). I Liberali sopra (10,7%). Le prime due favorite dalla difficoltà mostrata dalla Spd. I Verdi, in particolare, evidenziando una vitalità che caratterizza tutta l’area di lingua tedesca. Basta ricordare il caso dell’Austria, anche se in proporzioni e con dinamiche diverse, dove abbiamo assistito ad una battaglia, che ha visto infine prevalere, con ripetizione del ballottaggio, il Verde Alexander van der Bellen contro l’esponente di estrema destra Norbert Hofer del Partito della Libertà austriaco (i candidati del Partito popolare e del Partito socialdemocratico elimintati al primo turno). La Sinistra che viene dall’ex partito comunista orientale insieme a ex socialdemocratici come Oskar Lafontaine ha dimostrato di essersi inserita nel sistema democratico federale. Insieme ai Verdi, uno spazio politico-elettorale, oltre la socialdemocrazia, del 20%, comparabile all’Spd fotografata dal voto.

Vorrei aggiungere una considerazione. Se i Liberali andranno al governo, verosimilmente potrà esserci un cambio del testimone con Wolfgang Schäuble nella sorveglianza di una linea di rigore nei conti pubblici dell’area Euro che Schäuble ha plasticamente rappresentato in questi anni. Certo, l’asse politico della Germania si rafforza a destra; ma questo non significa che l’indirizzo di governo vada necessariamente a destra. Piuttosto il sistema politico tedesco sembra cercare altre strade oltre lo schema bipolare, aprendosi ad un maggiore pluralismo. Se volessimo trarre qualche indicazione per l’Italia che si avvia alle ormai prossime elezioni politiche, si potrebbe dire: la grande coalizione in sedicesimo tra Pd e Forza Italia non risulta propriamente validata dal voto tedesco; la tendenza porta ad una penalizzazione delle forze di governo, alla richiesta di una maggiore radicalità nella definizione dei profili politici e di scelte programmatiche alternative; non senza una crisi dei grandi partiti, a favore di formazioni ulteriori alla tradizione socialdemocratica, nel campo della sinistra, non minoritarie, dotate di una certa consistenza, intorno al 10%. L’area politico-elettorale, accanto alla Spd e da essa distinta, tra Verdi e Sinistra, arriva al 20%. E’ la misura circa de La Francia Indomita (La France insoumise) di Jean-Luc Mélenchon arrivata al 19,58% nelle ultime elezioni presidenziali in Francia. E’ un’area che potrebbe riproporsi altrove.

Certo, non si può non essere preoccupati dell’affermazione della AfD. Raccomanderei, tuttavia, un po’ cautela con i giudizi affrettati. Non convengono a nessuno. Certamente si tratta di un pezzo di destra xenofoba ed euroscettica con elementi che rimandano al passato ma anche che chiedono capacità di lettura dei pericoli nuovi. Gli aggettivi che si addicono all’AfD sono völkisch, populistisch, rechtsradikal. Populisti e sovranisti di una destra radicale. In un sistema politico che al 87% circa è composto di partiti che propugnano valori democratici, pur nella dialettica delle opinioni variamente assortite tra destra (democratica) e sinistra (democratica), in un’Europa squassata dalla crisi e dalle paure, c’è anche un 12,6%, oggi, in Germania, con un profilo antisistema di estrema destra. Per il nuovo governo federale non aspettiamoci soluzioni a breve. I tedeschi sono normativi, tendono a fare le cose con ordine. Le elezioni federali precedenti si tennero in data 22 settembre 2013. A seguito delle quali, in vista della composizione del governo, si aprirono consultazioni e negoziazioni, per arrivare ad un accordo, che fu sottoscritto solo il 14 dicembre 2013, tre mesi più tardi, nero su bianco.

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